May 15th, 2008

KRW: buying of 200 USD by polo at 1053, buy on dips around 1040; weaker won still favored to be boosted for exporters and oil companies need to buy USD/KRW for hedging

SGD

Saw MAS at 1.3850, still seeing support on the dips

Malaysia downgrade on sovereign credit rating downgraded to stable from posititve; brings S&P in line with Moody's and Fitch

THB

Slip in Thai consumer confidence to 73.0 in April from 73.8 in March; energy and food inflation still at forefront of everyone's concerns

South Africa

- Dismal performance in retail sales failed to sell off in ZAR;

- ZAR's lack of response to hawkish SARB comments => either rate hikes priced in '08 already OR bad external environment means rate expectations no longer the driver of the currency

- Odd timing of Easter could've affected retail sales, as PMI and Manufacturing output all weaker (fewer business days in March), => better than expected readings now in April data

- even with hawkish comments, some saying will hike 100bps, but we think still 50 as they've been very predictable in reacinting in "facilitating an efficient formation of expectations"

- 100 day MA = 7.5838; 20 day MA = 7.6274; lower end of Bollinger = 7.4764; 7.5870 = 38.2% fibonacci

- Bharti exploring a stock swap after their shares fell sharply on speculation; UAE's Emirates Telecommunications and China Mobile also looking at options