April 29th, 2008

Warren Buffet said US in recession when GDP less than 1% and US will probably be in one longer than most expect
Commodities all lower
Some KRW positive favtors. March c/a deficit was flat vs. US-$1.5bn, lower oil prices overnight, less dividend repatriation)
- expect swaps to move right as short-term USD funding improves and spot to stay supported
Singapore jobless rate rose to 2% in Q1 from 1.7% in Q4 with global economic backdrop
- MAS bi-annual briefing maintained 4-6% growth target and 4.5-5.5% inflation target
BoT gov Tarisa said main focus on rising inflation, price pressure not an impediment to growth and Thai take cues from US

Stocks to look at:
CUT: lumber ETF
HOV: make r of residential housing
NVR: home builder
PHM: homebuilder in US, Argentina, PR, and Mexico


South Africa
- trade balanced narrowed from Feb 5.8bn to March 5bn
- last week story of SARB governor from CNBC interview, but then realized that story was old and already aired on CNBC Africa
- Governor has made it clear magnitude of upward revision for Eskom electiricty tariff, and secondly, level of wage settlement
- with March CPIX at 10.1%, labor unions will mobilize to increase wages
- ZAR should see resistance at 7.63 and support at 7.48 in normal equity environment
- private sector credit growth (PCSR) higher at 22.62% vs. 20.5%

Zimbabwe electoral commission to examine recount on Thursday at 2pm