Wednesday, May 21, 2008

KRW: Spot gapped to 1052 and up to 1057 before BoK seen selling down to 1042
CNY: As EUR gapped higher, more selling interest in China
German IFO surprised to the upside pushing EUR up
In inflation data, government gasoline prices fell 4.6%
China: Shanghai composite fell from 6000 to 3000 from December to April
BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.5%
TWD: President Ma Ying-jeou was inaugurated as President of Taiwan on Tuesday
MYR: Badawi met with UMNO leaders to discuss Mahathirs resignation; no UMNO MPs left the part
Russia to meet with Georgia Envoy June 6-8 over Georgia's decision to join NATO
June 26-27 EU/Russia summit in Siberia

Vietnam
Ag Min Cao Duc Phat said might lift ban on rice exports in early July which may ease rice prices

Singapore
Market crashed through 1.3640 with market looking to EUR;

Thailand
Long liquidation as 32.00 broke triggering stops
BoT left rates unchanged
- signalled would tighten later if commodty-driven inflation doesnt subside
has kept rates steady 5 times since July '07 since five cuts
inflation ceiling is 3.5%
Indonesian were first CB to surpringly raise rates
FM Suebwonglee said he viewed stagflation as a greater threat than inflation
Annual inflation jumped to 6.2% in April '08 from 5.3% in March and 1.8% in Apr '07
BoT forecast inflation at 4-5% up from 2.3% in '07
Argument for stronger THB to buffer imported cost push inflation would be preferred to rate hikes as less collateral damage



South Africa
As ZAR was approaching Feb high of 7.39, violence and risk conditions hit ccy hard
As market gears up for a week of ZAR negative data should see a pullback to 7.75 before SARB issue comes back into play
While violence not a huge issue, symptomatic of larger issues of immigration = political instability
Other major political instability is Zuma's trial before 2009 elections
- SARBs inflation targeting will be under attack and rock investor confidence
South Africa has 48.5mm residents, and 3mm Zimbabwean and other African illegal inmigrants + 25% unemployment
Should trade in 7.63 - 7.73 range and need break of 7.58 for current long USDs to give up

Iceland
Moody's did affirm outlook as stable even with downgrade, just that iceland didnt deserve Aaa rating with "unusual circumstances"


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