January 30th, 2008

Inaugural UNA Speaker Event. How's It Gonna End?







- Asian equity markets were mostly lower with KOSPI down 3%, SETI was up 1.5%

- RBI kept reverse repo at 6% and repo rate at 7.75% while keeping CRR unchanged at 7.5%; inflation concerns now a dominant factor

- RBI Gov Reddy indicated shooting for 8.5% growth but inflation is a key risk

- Pimco's Gross said Fed shouldnt head towards 1% as great inflation risk; mortgage reform through FHA would be desirable than cutting

- IMF cut global growth forecast to 4.1% from 4.4%; lowers US growth rate to 1.5% from 1.9%; Eurozone to 1.6 from 2.1%

- HKMA Chief Yam said current market turmoil may affect plan for "through-train" plan for mainland Chinese to invest in HK stocks

- BNM left key rate unchanged at 3.5% but indicated inflation is primary threat to economy

- BoT is monitoring business and household sectors to see how much risk from global slowdown; feel the US impact is limited
- Thai FM raised its '07 economic growth forecast to 4.7% from 4.5.
- Samak Sundaravej's appointment has re-established the standoff b/w Thaksin and the military
- Cabinet formation will probably be decided by Thaksin while day to day will be handled by Samak; seen even by PPP members as a divider

- Samak's advantage is a lot of royal awards from the King; during the coup time he lead the denuniciations of coup leader General Prem b/c had the royal credentials; 73 year old at pinnacble of political career