February 21st, 2008

- Fed minutes anticipated "risks of a downturn to the economy to be significant" but "participants generally expected inflation to moderate somewhat in coming quarters"


- Fed noted combined decreased "wealth effect" from housing prices and equity prices increase risk of overall downturn

- minutes indicated some worry about fiscal stimulus package

February 19th, 2008

- ANC President Zuma corruption trial to start in August, will preoccupy him; may not succeed Mbkei in 2009

- also is about to take a 5th wife => disagreements over who will be the first lady

- anything that is seen to be anti-Zuma = ZAR positive

- Qatar Investment Authority buying nearly $15bn in stock of CSFB

- Shiekh Hamad bin Jasim bin Jaber Al-Thani is PM, Foreign minister, and CEO of QIA

- INR: Shortage of dollars pushed spot higher and onshore fwd pts lower

- HKD: swaps bid as HKD rates firmer after Joseph Yam's article saying HK experiencing real negative IR => no downside in HKD rates

- US - HK interest rate differential should narrow

- AUD policy minutes showedf almost raised rates by 50-bp vs. 25bp; even at 7% still room to raise rates

- Chinese inflation at highest levels in 11 years;

- Yuan traded at 7.1580 from 7.1623; highest reference rate since peg was scrapped

- CPI at 7.1% vs. 6.5% in Dec; Trade surplus in Jan higher than expected; money supply highest in 20 months

- SGD: attacking 1.4100, also getting support from AUD strength = Singapore strength

- Singapore NoDX rose for first time in 3 months as petrochemicals helped offset declining electronics and pharmas

- up 2.8% vs. down 4.5% in Dec; mktexp was down 5.7%

- Onshore THB falling to 32.50 as all of Asia strengthening

- Final list of 76 appointed senators will be submitted to Election Commission today

February 14th, 2008

- Malaysia PM dissolved govt and will announce date for a new election on Wed; should be by mid-March
- while ruling Barisan National Coalition should win question is to what extent
- rift b/w Pro-Badawi and Pro-Mahatir segments


- Japan economy expanded at 3.7% in 4th quarter
- US court froze $300mm in assets belonging to PDVSA, Venezuela's nationalized oil company
- Singapore Q4 GDP softer at 5.4% vs. mktxp of 6.0%
- full year growth was at 7.7% vs. 7.5% which was better
- decoupling theories somewhat worn nowl US factoring in
- strengthening SGD because of weaker USD and high inflation should further hurt exporters
- 2008 growth revised down from 4.5 - 6.5% to 4-6%
- GIC might put $2-3bn into a fund set up by PE firm TPG to invest in troubled financial firms; goal is for a $6bn including SAFE money
- PE fund would act as a neutral proxy to allay investor suspicion of hidden agendas, etc.
- outflows should prop up USD/SGD
- Afer FM and BoT meeting; FM Surapong said interest rates should be at levels conducive to stimulating growth
- final decision

February 13th, 2008

- When Japan had its real estate bubble in the 90s; banks ended up with $9--bn in bad debt, 20% of GDP, in US right now $200-300bn or 2%

- real GDP fell from 3-4% rate to 1%

- Japanese banks were unwilling to reapitalize themselves, instead chose to 'implode balances sheets and wait'

- Philly Fed forecasters see US Q1 GDP at 0.7% vs. 2.2% earlier forecast

- BoK kept rates unchanged for 6th straight month at 5%; had last raised rates in July and August to fight consumer inflation

- bonds were bid on speculation rates may be cut from 6yr high but Governor Lee said "need to time to assess fallout"

- Indonesia and Malaysia kept rates unchanged over last week

- Korean inflation up 3.9% in Jan, fastest in 3 years; target band is 2.5 - 3.5%

- First day of trading in CNY after long holiday; spot taken to high of 7.2220 in afternoon but front end very discounted

- HKD swaps eased off on back of soft t/n rates of 1.5%

- SGD tried 1.4150 again but failed as rumors of subprime losses in JPY pushed the pair higher to 1.4188

- Thailand

- Commerce minister wants to call meeting to work with manufacturers on reducing consumer prices

- no decision out of meeting b/w FM and BoT on capital controls

- FM proposing laws that will restrict freedom of PM to dip into annual govt budget; would be very good for fiscal responsibility

-

February 12th, 2008

Bad week of



- Thailand's new govt will decide by April whether to lift capital controls; FM Suewonglee said they've reached no conclusion

- New PM Sundaravej said they will lift controls to boost growth; exports make up $206bn

- Equity exempted in Dec '06, real estate funds and overseas loans exempted in Dec '07; overseas bond investments control remains in place

- expect growth around 5.5% after 4.7% in '07; Samak wants to see 6%

- Saudi oil price and ccy will remain tied to USD Minister of State said

- he indicated however that relations b/w the two countries continue to fray post 9/11

- said high price of oil is not a supply side issue; due to refining capacity problems => exacerbated by US in Iraq

February 11th, 2008

A long and interesting and fun weekend rolling into a terribly Sunday night trading wise which again makes me want to sit back and really question how to approach this year. I guess i need to take this on as a personal challenge of how well can i trade.

- Obama continued on with his momentum, sweeping the Maine, Nebraska, Washington, and Virgin Islands caucuses and Louisiana primary
- Clinton fired campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle and replaced with Maggie Williams
- Hillary looking out to Latinos in Texas and blue-collar workers in Ohio and Pennsylvania
- Tuesday = Potomac Primary; competing for 15 pledged delegates in D.C., 70 in Maryland and 83 in Virginia
- Chavez has threatened to freeze Venezuelan oil shipments to US; US is biggest customer of VEB importing 1.4mn bpd
- Britian, Netherlands, and Dutch Caribbean Islands courts all ruled in favor of Exxon
- Altria and Honeywell out of the Dow, BofA and Chevron added


- USD weak with RBA commenting for need for rates to rise a good deal more => "dislcoations" with US and abroad
- G7 nations approved plan for sale of gold by IMF beginning in April as broad reform movement for its budget
- IMF holds 103mn ounces or $92bn, only 5yrs ago it was worth $23bn, now $70bn higher
- Reliance Power IPO traded down 12%, brought an end to booming IPO scene
- PHP had smallest budget deficit in a decade in '07 but stocks still down 2% and USD/PHP higher with risk aversion
- Temasek looking to increase its stake in Standard Chartered from well beyond 20% and less than 30%
- BoT talking more about lifting capital controls and implementing interest race cuts in tandem
- the expected pressure on usd/thb from lifting controls would be offset by lower yield in THB
- tax measures would not be used to replicate effects of rate cut
- has labeled the issue a coplex onethat required proper environment to be established first

February 8th, 2008

- Trichet said "unusually high uncertainty" regarding the banks view of the European economy, very doveish on ECB rates
- new Thai Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said economy should grow to 6.0% in '08, govt will review capital controls next week
- according to FM, new govt may have to shoulder repayment of public debt from previous banking rescue package if BoT doesnt make profits
- originally BoT agreed to pay the principal while FM would should interest costs, would make a dent in public spending packages
- BoT lost about THB 100bn in '06 from intervention and partially book-keeping practices

February 6th, 2008

- GIC partnered with ING Real Estate to buy Roma Est Shopping Centre for EUR400mn in the biggest real estate deal ever in Italy
- IMF predicts HK economy will slow down to 4.6% from estimated 6.0% in '07; inflation seen rising to 3.7% in '08 from 2.2% in '07
- Chinese inflation predicted for after Lunar New Year, predicting a 11yr high of 7%
- Taiwanese inflation grew 3.0%, below mktexp of 3.4%
- FM of Thailand establisehd 2 teams for facilitating THB appreciation; one to plan 3-5 years ahead, one as an emergency team
- the long-term team will be headed by Director of Fiscal Policy office and in charge of monitoring flows of funds
- the emergency team to be headed by BoT governor and responsible for damage control
- BoT eased restrictions on foreign currency holding by local companies, can hold dollars up to 360 compared to 120 day limit previously
- before Thais and corps could hold foreign ccy of no more than USD1mn and USD100mn, aimed at alleviating upside pressure to THB
- new cabinet to be announced on Wednesday for royal aproval
- Govt of Samak Sundaravej is going to adopt populist agenda of TRT: rural debt suspension, micro-credit, universal health care, public investment in mega-inftrastructure projects, legalization of underground lottery, anti-drugs
- BoT wont have much latitude under new govt
- a big problem is leading policymakers all banned under 5yr TRT ban; also new laws have discouraged economics experts from joining public service like lengthy intervals b/w private and public jobs so "b" team in charge of policy

Stock Market Crashes

1) 4/17/1930 - 7/8/1932 813 days Dow: 294.07 to 41.22 or -86.0%
2) 3/10/1937 - 3/31/1938 386 days Dow: 194.40 to 98.95 or -49.1%
3) 1/19/1906 - 11/15/1907 665 days Dow: 75.45 to 38.83 or -48.5%
4) 9/3/1929 - 11/13/1929 71 days Dow: 381.17 to 198.69 or -47.9%
5) 11/3/1919 - 8/24/1921 660 days Dow: 119.62 to 63.9 or -46.6%
6) 6/17/1901 - 11/9/1903 875 days Dow: 57.33 to 30.88 or -46.1%
7) 1/11/1973 - 12/6/1974 694 days Dow: 1051.70 to 577.60 or -45.1%
8) 9/12/1939 - 4/28/1942 959 days Dow: 155.95 to 92.92 or -40.4%
9) 11/21/1916 - 12/19/1917 393 days Dow: 110.15 to 65.95 or -40.1%
10) 1/15/2000 - 10/9/2002 999 days Dow: 11,792.98 to 7,286.27 or -37.8%

February 5th, 2008

Super Tuesday, the hangover from the Superbowl loss. Back at work. C'est la fucking vie.

- Bush presented a $3.1trn budget, freeze domestic spending in '09 and a $410bn deficiti in FY08; sees 2.7% growth in '08, and 3.0% in '09

- ISM non-manufacturing dropped to 41.9, lowest since Oct 2001 whe the survey began
- RBA hiked rates by 25bps, room to hike rates higher with strong economy but inflation looming
- does not expect inflation to fall before 2009; may go even higher than 7%, domestic demand remains strong and high capacity usage + labour shortages persist
- BoE and ECB have meetings this week; BoE should cut rate by 25bp to 5.25% and ECB should hold at 4%
- Russian SWF to invest in Japanese stock market
- World Bank lowered growth forecast for China to 9.6% from 10.8% and raised '08 inflation forecast to 4.6% from 3.8%
- Unnamed official said India to raise fuel prices this week
- BI Gov said Indonesia inflation forecast has been raised to 6.0 - 6.5% from 5.0% in '08
- Singapore IPI and NODX for Jan should be somewhat weak, in which case government won't tolerate stronger SGD
- Singapore growth slwing as PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.0 in Dec and 53.8 in Nov
- Inflation in Thailand stepped up to 4.3% from 3.2% in Dec
- BoT notified on the ease in capital outflow limits on residents

February 1st, 2008

A new month, hopefully a continuation of the relative productivity of last month. I will say as we enter this new month the sheer urgency of last month seems to have perhaps faded. Possibly famous last words but in the aftermath of a conciliatory debate last night with the Dems, Asian stock markets being up overnight, the Fed cutting rates and no one leaving work yet, will everything be okay? I'd hope so.



. GIC (Govt Investment Corp of Singapore) acquired a 9.5% stake of Pepsi-Cola Products Phillipins

- Singapore's Q4 jobless rate fell to 1.6%, lowest in a decade

- Qatar Investment Authority signed a contract with Singapore's Keppel corp to join as an investor in Sino-Singapore ecocity Tianjin project

- HKMA moved with Fed and cut rates 50bp to 4.5%. Yam said would boost economy and said decoupling will not be the case

- HK will need to ease rates to follow again but vulnerable to inflationary pressures with low rates, and high CNY making imports more expensive, especially food