September 8th, 2008

THB
PM Samak scheduled to speak at UN General Assembly later this month; Gen Somjet hasnt taken military option off the table
Court ruling on Tuesday if he broke the law by hosting television cooking shows while in office
Samak could be PM again if six-party ruling coalition stays in power and chooses him as PM
- denied he was paid by a media company to do the shows "Tasting, Grumbling" and "Touring at 6 am"
- gave up hosting the shows in April, more than 2 months after sworn in as PM
- he's proposed a referendum on rule but PAD has rejected it


ZAR

September 2nd, 2008

KRW
Spot opened at 1116 but shot higher after KOSPI reversed from +1% to -1.5%
BoK report that USDKRW strength unlikely to disappear

THB
State of emergency; somewhat expected but spot higher
spot reaction somewhat muted with BoT intervention; offshore curve very well bid
Confederation of State Enterprise Labor announced 200,000 state workers will go on strike to protest violence against PAD
Aug CPI eased to 6.4% in July; 2008 inflation to average 6.5-6.9%

ZAR
Commodities are off with Gustav not as serious; EUR breaking 1.4600 level
EM equities also under pressure; local stocks being no exception
Mboweni said would be open to serving a 3rd 5yr term when this one expires in a years time

August 27th, 2008

THB
Hiked rates from 3.5% to 3.75%
Deputy FM Suchart Thadathamrongvej said rates should be kept on hold and called for CB Gov Tarisa Watanagase to resign if they hiked
Economy slowed more than expected ($245bn economy) at 5.3% (vs. 6.1% last year)

KRW
came off as trade minister said KRW above 1080 will hurt the economy

SGD
Extended fall with EUR above 1.4800; support at 1.4110/20 levels
Lift above 1.4170 will trigger upmove back to Tuesdays high of 1.4278

THB
CS was a seller in spot and swaps; importers still keen to buy usdthb
Daily funding volatile, trrading between -0.8 and +2 for month end; lookig for 34.50
Civil court ruled against PAD and arrested 9 leaders, including 4 for treason;

ZAR
13.0% CPI lower inflation forecast slightly, but indicates inflation could peak in August vs. July
Next move for a cut is being priced in for Jan meeting; Firstrand thinks Q208
- even with 200-300bp cuts, rates still realtively very high

August 26th, 2008

EUR


KRW

MYR
kept rates unchanged at 3.5%, same since April '06 (19 straight meetings)
growth slowed to 6% in Q2 from 7.1% in 1st qtr
Anwar promising to scrap Malaysia's system of favoritism for ethnic Malays
Malaysian by-election today

THB
Rumors of state of emergency in Thailand
Reports of the PAD seizing the National Broadcasting service of thailand and forcing it to air their demand that Samak re removed

August 25th, 2008

KRW
breaking 1069 resistance saw spot as high as 1080; copntinue higher with absence of BoK to 1105
FX swaps collapsed with 1m implied yield 40bp lower as rumors of USD funding difficulties

England
Worst quarter of econ growth at 0% since H1 '92, forced to the sidelines and keep rates

SGD
CPI to the upside at 6.5% vs. 6.1%; gave SGD some boost after data release
- did ease from 7.5% in June; inflation should ease from USD strength and oil weakness
Trade inister said CB needs to balance growth risks and inflation; stronger FX => drugs, chemicals and electronics

THB
33.79 - 34.16 range, need to test 34.16 for clean break
BoT offering on the way up but not aggressively;
lower than expected GDP in Q2 at 5.3%; from 6.1% in Q1
Political turbulence also led to slowdown in govt spending
PM Samak said wont rescind Thaksin's diplomatic passport
Supreme Court will come to a decision by 17Sep

August 19th, 2008

ZAR
Platinum down another 5% and 1,000/oz off the high; foreigners dumping local bonds
break through 1.4660 in EUR should see 1.4500; watch PPI
good GDP is one plus side
- 4.9% in 2q from 2.1% in Q1; recovery in mining and manufacturing output (contributed 3.1% to overall GDP)
- big shift waspower outages in Q1 to stable electricity supply in Q2;
- finance and business sectors halved in growth from 4.9% in Q1 to 2.3% in Q2; demonstrates broad theme of weakening domestic expenditure and evidence of weakening bank loan and real estate demand
- interest-rate sensitive sector of retail and wholesale trade actually contracted 2.2%, more than expected
- Agriculture the star performer for 2nd straight quarter; from commodity prices
- maintain forecast for 3.2% for 2008 (2007 - 5.1%, 2009 = 2.8%)
7.7940, 7.8340, 7.8750 (38.2%, 50%, 61.8% fib)


THB
Equities down 1% and political tensions on the rise spot getting bid up
Hungreds of PAD supporters marching on British Embassy in bangkok to protest for extradition of Thaksin

August 13rd, 2008

ZAR